United trimming flights as Middle East conflict drives fuel costs higher

United Airlines announced Friday it is trimming flights as rising fuel costs tied to the U.S. military operation in Iran squeeze the industry.

United CEO Scott Kirby, in a memo shared to the company’s website, said the airline will cancel about “3 points of flying in off peak periods” — pointing to redeye trips and mid-week flights — in the second and third quarters of 2026. He added that some airports, including Chicago O’Hare International Airport, are already reducing flights under a directive from the Federal Aviation Administration.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks,” Kirby told employees. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel. For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”

“That may sound scary, but the first piece of good news is that, for now at least, demand remains the strongest we’ve ever seen. The 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in our history have been the last 10 weeks,” he continued. “But it may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer.”

The company has also paused services to Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel and the Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates amid the Iran conflict — impacting another 1 percent of capacity.

The plan, according to the company, is based on estimates that oil could reach $175 per barrel and remain above $100 per barrel until the end of 2027.

Kirby added that the airline’s current plan ‌would restore its full flight schedule in the fall.

The United CEO warned earlier this month that the surging costs could also affect airline ticket prices. Kirby said while the demand for flights remains strong, the carrier would likely feel a “meaningful” impact on its finances.

Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key waterway used to transport oil in the Middle East — and retaliatory strikes on neighboring Gulf states have sparked a global energy crisis. The Trump administration’s moves to alleviate the costs, including lifting sanctions on some oil already at sea, have done little thus far.

United’s decision will likely add to travel headaches already worsened by strains on the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) amid the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown.

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told NewsNation earlier this week that the likelihood of a temporary pause in operations at smaller airports is increasing, as TSA agents call out amid the lapse in funding.

“It will vary very much airport to airport,” he said. “Callout rates are one of many factors that help to inform our security footprint at every single airport, but again I can tell you, this is going to get worse before it gets better, particularly if we don’t have a resolution within the coming days and weeks.”

The DHS shutdown hit 35 days on Friday after Senate Democrats again rejected legislation to reopen the department.