Bipartisan farming advocates are concerned the industry could “collapse” in the near future, with the combination of a downturn cycle and the policies of the Trump administration putting the sector in a precarious position.
Former leaders in the industry warned House and Senate lawmakers, in a letter this week, that Congress needs to step up “if we are to avoid a widespread collapse of American agriculture and our rural communities.”
While some experts are skeptical about such dire predictions, they say the policies of the administration, particularly tariffs, are not helping the rising costs of production and weak crop prices farmers have experienced in the past few years.
While the letter acknowledges the problems in the agriculture industry are complex, its authors say it “is clear that the current administration’s actions, along with congressional inaction, have increased costs for farm inputs, disrupted overseas and domestic markets, denied agriculture its reliable labor pool, and defunded critical ag research and staffing.”
The letter was signed by a bipartisan group of leaders including staffers under former Republican administrations, past heads of agriculture organizations, experts in the field and farmers.
It points out that policies in President Trump’s first term, such as a trade war with China, dropped the soy bean industry’s market share by 50 percent in 2018. The president also pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that the letter says would have boosted farm exports by $4.4 billion.
In the first year of his second term, Trump started tariff fights with 60 countries, while the trade deficit for agriculture reached $28.6 billion in the first half of the year.
In 2025, crop farmers lost $34.6 billion, according to the American Farm Bureau.
“The current administration’s range of tariffs, it’s exacerbated the original trade war that we had with China back in the first administration. I think it’s actually … hurting our soybean export market, in particular to China,” said Ian Sheldon, Andersons chair in agricultural marketing, trade and policy at Ohio State University.
“The president did strike a trade deal with China back in November whereby they committed to importing 12 million tons of soybeans through the end of the current marketing year, and then 25 million tons for the next three marketing years. But it’s very clear that soybean farmers in particular have really been hurt in terms of lost export markets in China,” he added.
The administration in December announced $12 billion in bridge payments for farmers “in response to temporary trade market disruptions” while also blaming the Biden administration for high prices.
“President Trump is the most pro-farmer President of our lifetime, and through his leadership, the administration is supporting farmers through unprecedented international market access including over two dozen trade deals boosting ag market access and exports, lowered taxes, and improvements to the farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill,” a spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture said in a statement to The Hill this week.
“The Trump Administration has been working around the clock since January 20th to put American Farmers First after inheriting one of the worst farm economies the country has experienced in decades. President Trump is utilizing all the tools available to ensure farmers have what they need to continue their farming operations,” the spokesperson added.
The letter, which was first obtained by The New York Times, is pushing for the Trump administration to exempt all farm inputs from tariffs, roll back tariffs that are hurting exports, pursue free trade agreements, pass a new farm bill and farm labor reform and fully fund staffing and research for agriculture.
But some warn this is not an issue the federal government can fix on its own.
The farming industry has natural lows and highs, with the current cycle trending down after record profits in 2022.
Weak prices for industries such as corn are, in part, attributable to good weather among major global suppliers and an oversupply in product. Other issues, such as a rise in fertilizer prices, have popped up since the start of the Ukraine-Russia war.
“Production costs have been very, very high. This is costs for fertilizers, costs for chemicals, for machinery products, for machinery inputs. All these key inputs have been elevated, the production costs, much of it, due to run up in inflation over the past few years,” said Shawn Arita, associate director of the Agricultural Risk Policy Center at North Dakota State University.
“All these production costs rose and they haven’t fallen unlike what we’ve seen on the commodity price side. So, we did have this big run-up, both in commodity prices as well as inflationary pressures throughout the economy,” he added.
While many of these problems didn’t start under the Trump administration, some say his policies aren’t making it better.
“What we have been hit with is retaliatory tariffs on the other side. So, it’s tariffs on farm inputs and retaliatory tariffs by other countries against us,” said Daniel Sumner, a professor in agricultural and resource economics at the University of California, Davis.
The letter pressuring lawmakers comes as Congress is looking to mark up a farm bill in late February.
Farmers are also waiting anxiously as the Supreme Court will soon weigh in on the legality of Trump’s tariff use.
“This letter outlining concerns from dedicated farm leaders, former USDA officials, and experts should be a wake-up call for this administration and members of Congress from both parties. We need to do more to stand up for our farmers and ranchers – that starts with ending the administration’s chaotic, across-the-board tariff policies, which have created trade uncertainty, dried up farmers’ markets and increased input costs,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who is running for governor, said in a statement to The Hill.
“We also must do more to ensure that farmers can easily access the USDA services they count on. I commend this bipartisan group of former ag leaders for boldly speaking out and am committed to working with them on the solutions they outlined including passing a bipartisan Farm Bill,” she added.

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